How do YOU think the races will go?
President: - Obama, and it won't be very close. I'm guessing he'll receive around 350 electoral votes. McCain will win Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, the SEC states, Alaska, and little else. I'm recommending a vote for Bob Barr (Libertarian) in this race. Terrible choices foisted on the United States electorate by the big two.
US Congress: - The Democrats will expand their Congressional advantage to 250-185. Nancy Pelosi will preside over a decidedly Democratic Congress and will finally (much to the joy of progressives) put a leash on the Yellow Dogs.
US Senate: Not quite a supermajority, but damn close. Give the Democrats 59 and the Republicans 42. An odd thing about elections, they make for unusual power brokers. Joe Lieberman becomes the mother of all "Swing votes" and is able to inject a needed dose of moderation into the
liberal progressive laundry list of policy.
US Rep 7: Culberson vs. Skelley - Despite the fact I recommend Skelley, I don't forsee him beating Culberson here. Despite breathless squeals of glee from
liberal progressive partisan bloggers, this is still a very Red district. It will be close, but Culberson will pull it out.
TX Senate: Cornyn vs. Noriega - Not very close all things considered. Noriega has ran a terrible campaign against a candidate who was there to be beaten. This race continues the curious inability of Texas Democrats to run good races on a Statewide level. I'm recommending a Libertarian vote in this race. Neither major party candidate is worth much.
TX State Rep 135: Elkins vs. Fleming - Elkins, it won't be close. I've met Tre Fleming and like him well enough, but he's not going to have a prayer against Elkins in this heavily Republican district. That being said, Elkins has been a good Rep so I recommend a vote for him. There's a role for Mr. Fleming in Gov't, but this is probably not it.
Harris County Judge: Emmett vs. Mincberg - Emmett in a squeaker. This race wouldn't be all that close but for the propensity of large numbers of uninformed voters to pull "straight ticket". I recommend voting for Emmett.
Harris County District Attorney: Bradford vs. Lykos - Bradford by about 7%. Not that this is anything to be happy about. Nor would a Lykos win be anything to be excited about. All Bradford accomplished during his tenure as police chief is the continued destruction of the credibility of the HPD crime lab, being in charge during an ill-planned raid that cost the City Millions of dollars to settle, and overseeing policy that led to the current officer shortage. Bradford's tenure as police chief was a disaster. Based on his silent campaign there's no reason to think he's any more qualified to be District Attorney. His is a coattails campaign that's relying on Obama to get elected. Sad thing is, against Lykos, he'll probably do it. All evidence points to the reality that Pat Lykos is totally unsuited to be District Attorney. Ancedotal evidence reveals a mean, petty, vindictive side to her personality and her answers to key questions reveal and ignorance regarding the actual responsibilities of the District Attorney. Vote your conscience on this race, or do as I do, just skip it altogether and work to put someone qualified on the ballot the next go-round.
Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector: Bettencourt vs. Trautman - Trautman wins here, due in large part to straight-party balloting. I'm recommending a vote for Bettencourt. Despite the visceral dislike that
liberal progressive bloggers seem to have for him, there's real evidence that under his leadership operations in the TA-C office have improved. Trautman is an educator, and has no experience relevent to the position.
Harris County Attorney: Mike Stafford vs. Vince Ryan - Ryan, not close. This is a down-ballot race that will be won/lost by straight ticket voters. Ryan is a decent choice for this post. Vote your conscience on this race. (if you pay attention to it at all)
District Clerk: Chang vs. Jackson - Jackson, again due to straight-party advantage. Going into this I was pro-Chang, but there are credible questions that have been raised regarding her payment of taxes. Questions that she hasn't answered. As a result I've moved from recommending her to "vote your conscience" on this race.
County Sheriff: Thompson vs. Garcia - Garcia, won't be close. Thompson has been dogged with ethics charges and needs to go. I'm not saying Garcia is the ideal candidate to replace him, but for now he's all there is. I've got concerns that Garcia is willing to abandon the unincorporated Harris County areas to subsidize the City, but if he did that he'd be voting himself out when his terms up so we'll see. All things considered I'm recommending Garcia. (albeit with reservations)
Harris County Commissioner: Precinct 3: Radack vs. Handy - Radack but close. According to Radack this is his last term. We'll hold him to that and add this: over the last few years Precinct 3 has boomed, adding parks and roads and improving infrastructure. Handy has a good campaign slogan, an Air Force background and little else. His endorsement list reads like a who's who of Democratic organizations. Radack is the good vote here, although if Handy wins its probably not the end of the World.
Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice: Jefferson vs. Jordan - Jefferson, in a close race. The argument being used by Democrats as a reason to vote for Jordon is not that Jordan is more qualified (he's not), not that Jefferson has been a bad jurist (he hasn't) but that all the judges on the Court are currently Republican. I'd much rather have good justices regardless of party. Jefferson is recommended here.
Texas Supreme Court pl. 7: Wainright vs. Houston - Houston, due to straight party votes. Wainright has drawn fire for some of his courtroom practices. Political gimmicky name (it's not an intentional gimmick btw) notwithstanding Sam Houston seems to be a qualified candidate for the bench. Houston is recommended here.
Texas Supreme Court pl. 8: Johnson vs. Yanez - Yanez, giving the Democrats two justices on the Texas Supreme Court. I'm not overly impressed in this race with one candidate over another. Vote your conscience here.
Railroad Commissioner: Williams vs. Thompson - Williams in a close one. This one shouldn't be close. Williams is qualified, Thompson isn't. If you're a strong partisan Democrat and want to
pretend you're thoughtful then vote for Williams in this race. There's no reason I can find to cast a vote for Thompson, who's totally unqualified for the position.
Picks only, no recommendation (not my yard man)...
Tx St. Senate: SD 17 Special - Run-off: Bell vs. Huffman. This race has been the ugliest of the ugly, with Chris Bell benefiting from a Republican group that can't shoot straight. Sad thing is, even
with big dollars from Democrats, Bell still won't pull this out and will lose in a run-off.
US Rep 22: Lampson vs. Olson - Olson wins due to the majority Republican make-up of this district.
Tx State Sen 11: Jackson vs. Jaworski - Jackson by a couple of percentage points. The Dems get closer in this district but not close enough.
Tx State Rep 126: Harless vs. Khan - Harless, by a lot. Khan's campaign has been non-existent. Harless was targeted by Dems, but the challenger fell short.
Tx State Rep 127: Crabb vs. Montemayor - Montemayor in an upset. This is one that partisan Democrats are really hoping for. Chalk one up to Obama's coattails.
Tx State Rep 129: Davis vs. Matula - Matula, by a lot. And yes, I'm basing this solely on the amount of Matula signs I've seen while driving through this district.
Tx State Rep 133: Murphy vs. Thibaut - Thibaut, not close. Again, I'm basing this on "driving around" polling more than anything.
Tx State Rep 134: Cohen vs. Agris - Cohen, by over 60%. Cohen has turned this district into the epitome of a "safe seat" for the Dems. Expect her to carry the water for a LOT of progressive legislation this next session.
Tx State Rep 138: Bohac vs. McDavid - Bohac by a mile. Very popular rep, heavily Republican district. 'nuff said.
Tx State Rep 141: Thompson vs. Bunch - Thompson by over 65%. Thompson will be making a strong push for speaker if the Dem's take over the House. She's as safe as safe gets.
Tx State Rep 143: Hernandez vs. Olmos - Hernandez due mostly to high straight-voter ballots cast in this highly Hispanic district.
Tx State Rep 144: Legler vs. Redmond - Redmond, in a switch. Legler is a decent candidate and Republicans would LOVE to hold onto this seat, but I think electoral trends are going to work against them here.
Tx State Rep 145: Alvarado vs. Rodriguez - Alvarado. If Rodriguez gets 30% of the vote I'll be surprised. Positive note: we don't have to worry about Alvarado firing off another missive about how her expertise will be missed in this non-term limited elected position.
Tx State Rep 149: Vo vs. Myers - Vo. Can you believe it? I'm not sure what this says about the voting intelligence of residents of the 149th.
Tx State Rep 150: Riddle vs. Brad Neal - Riddle. Democrats would love to have Riddle voted out, but this predominently white, middle-class district will remain under Republican representation, for now.
Tx State court races: - All in all I see the races for judgeships breaking about even. Democrats will eat into the bench advantage that Republicans currently enjoy in Texas, but there will be a few outliers where Republican vitory seems uncertain, but happens reguardless.
Thoughts: A lot of pundits are saying this election will be about "change". While it may be that Democrats will surge to huge majorities (and flirt with a supermajority in the Senate) all that's happening right now is the same thing that's happened many times previously in America, the political pendulum is swinging. Because of this I don't buy into the "change" meme as nothing will really change. America has been moving down the road toward totalitarianism for a long time now. With the passage of the Patriot Act, FISA changes and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security we've happily sold our civil rights down the river in change for the feeling of security. The next logical step is for Americans to sell their financial rights down the river in exchange for a feeling of security while "Hope"-ing an ineffectual, bloated Government to run things in a manner contrary to historical precedent.
In short, we're just expanding the breadth of the path on which we've been walking now for seven years into the financial realm, and not just limiting it to matters of personal security. Republicans who had no qualms allowing the Bush administration new authority regarding wire-taps and access to personal data are fainting from the vapours because Obama has decided he thinks the same Government should have more say in our personal finances. Democrats who are actively rooting for the Government to take personal wealth and redistribute it, were making their pants over thoughts of the Government reading an e-mail from one potential terrorist to another just a few short months ago. That's not "fundamental change" it's just an expansion, more of the same if you will.
IF Democrats get a 60 vote super-majority, gain a majority in the House and control the White House then Americans are going to have to hope that they suddenly develop an inclination to police themselves. Based on past historical evidence, this is not likely. If given full control of the Government nanny-statists will be unable to resist the temptation to protect the citizenry from itself, and there will be very little free-speech activists or the opposition will be able to do to stop them. Legislation such as the Fairness Doctrine and calls to create a Civilian Defense Corps should scare the populist pants off of the staunchest Democrat, unless that Democrat suffers from the same totalitarian impulses they like to brand their intelllectual opposition with so freely. They don't like to face down that charge, but its true.
I recommend avoiding the political blogosphere for at least two weeks following the election. All you're going to find are bad sportsmanship on both sides. The Democrats will be partaking in that ugliest of winning traditions: gloating, while Republicans will be mirroring them in ugliness by whining and blaming. It's not going to be pretty. Once the emotion wears off however things will revert to normal, the piling on will stop (except in some of the more childish blogs) and real policy analysis and wish lists will start to take shape. At that point, we'll begin to see how the Democrats will govern: with the restraint and moderation that they are promising publically, or with extremism and bile that they've been building up privately for years?
For the sake of the Country you always hope the best of our political leaders, and that prophecies of doom are the sole provision of partisans on the losing side. The American people are going to speak on Tuesday, most of them will speak despite being totally uninformed on the issues or candidates.
Let's just hope that America's quadrennial educated guess is a good one.