The Metropolitan Transit Authority got federal permission last week to move forward with preliminary engineering on its planned North and Southeast lines, work that was halted in November while Metro revised its funding applications to reflect the switch from Bus Rapid Transit back to light rail.
That was good news. The bad news was the soaring cost estimates that came with it.
The Federal Transit Administration, using data provided by Metro, said in its letters that the estimated cost of the North line, which would run 5.5 miles from north of downtown to Northline Mall, has risen to $677 million, from $276 million. The Southeast Line, 6.8 miles from downtown to Palm Center, has risen to $664 million, from $158 million, the FTA said.
By comparison, the 7.5-mile Main Street line cost $324 million and needs $104 million in new rail cars and improvements.
The FTA also sent a review of Metro's proposals that attributes the increases largely to the higher costs of light rail than BRT, which uses special buses running on guideways. The increases also reflect light rail's higher ridership projections, extended through 2030, which would require 29 new rail cars and other infrastructure.
Then there are the rising costs of fuel, labor and construction materials. Although Metro's estimates assume 3.5 percent annual inflation, the FTA reviews describe this as optimistic and say Metro should "refine and update" its figures.
Letters from FTA regional administrator Robert Patrick advise Metro that the go-ahead on engineering is not a promise to fund final design or construction, and that Metro must still fulfill all federal requirements. Both lines are rated "medium" as candidates for the funding, FTA said.
In case you're not keeping score (and I'll bet most of you are) that's a 145% (401 Million) increase in costs for the North Line and a staggering 320% ($508 Million) increase for the Southeast line. By means of comparison, the much derided I-10 expansion is running approximately 133% (or $1.5 Billion) over cost estimates. While the raw numbers for the Katy Freeway expansion are eye opening, its important to look at percentages here due to the difference in scope of the project. Remember that the Katy Freeway will move more "passengers" in one day than the entire Metro Rail system will move in one quarter. Not much is ever made of the difference in scope, but its a real factor when considering cost overruns.
I wonder if there will be the same heartburn over Metro's plans that there have been over the Tx Dot overruns? I'm not holding my breath.
As is usual: Metro is ecstatic that they haven't been laughed off stage:
"We are excited about the positive report," Metro said in a statement. "A 'medium' rating endorses the North and Southeast Projects as competitive for federal New Starts funding."
All of which calls into question the Federal guidelines for New Starts funding.
At the end of the day I have zero doubts that Metro's toy train is going to be built. It's just too bad that there couldn't have been more serious discussions about building a real transportation system in its place.
Ah well.
OTHER EYES:
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