The County Judge dust-up between
Ed Emmett and
Charles Bacarisse has cranked into high gear in the wake of the
Rosenthal e-mail fiasco.
(from Alan Bernstein of the Chron)
In the March 4 GOP primary for county judge, challenger and former District Clerk Charles Bacarisse called Wednesday for Rosenthal to resign and, when asked repeatedly by reporters, said there should be an independent investigation of his actions. A campaign aide said calling for Rosenthal's resignation was more significant because an investigation was inevitable.
In contrast, incumbent County Judge Ed Emmett announced the county's request for an independent investigation by the state attorney general and, when asked repeatedly, said Rosenthal should resign.
"That's fairly stout. That says, look, this is more than just calling and saying, 'Gee, why don't you resign,' " Emmett said. "This is saying, 'We are starting a process that, if the facts turn out ... we will remove you from office.' "
Both strove to be portrayed as distant from longtime county government practices.
"The voters in general are sick of politics as usual," Bacarisse said.
And Emmett said: "I had no connection to county government before I became county judge (in 2007). I clearly am the outsider and the newcomer to all of this."
If Rosenthal remains in office for a long time — his term lasts through the year — the scandal could hurt public opinion about all local Republican candidates, just as party leaders feared when they urged Rosenthal to end his re-election campaign, experts said.
Those of the political persuasion are getting a press release per day from the Bacarisse campaign, asking questions that are indirect (though thinly vieled) shots at Emmett's integrity and, in some cases, creative application of fact as it relates to Emmett's stances on certain issues.
For example:
The "question":
Do you still support the District Attorney as you said on December 28th and reaffirmed on December 30th, or are you going to suddenly change your mind as you did on doubling toll taxes?
Emmett's supposed "support":
Dec 28:
Former Judge Eckels and current County Judge Emmett are both supporting Rosenthal. Privately though, a number of others within the Republican Party are concerned that having Rosenthal on the ballot could damage other Republican candidates in Harris County.
Dec 30:
Harris county judge Ed Emmett says Rosenthal's emails were done in poor judgment and have put the Republican party in an awkward position with voters.
"There's no violation of county policy, but the term I used is 'this was stupid' and people expect the district attorney to have judgment beyond reproach," said Harris County Judge ed Emmett.
Note that both of these blurbs were spoken Before the New Year, before the extent of the issue was fully known. Also, the spoken "support" for Rosenthal in the Dec. 28th story is implied by the reporter. There is no direct quote from Emmett.
At present I'm not backing anyone in the DA's race but, just as I stated regarding the
Noriega claims regarding Cornyn's vote "dishonest criticism is dishonest criticism and shouldn't have any soapbox in the political arena.".
Which brings us to
The growing battle over Texas House District 130 where Dan "Gospel Truth" Patrick has started a war of insinuation and mud-slinging on behalf of Alan Fletcher against his opponent, incumbent House Member Corbin Van Arsdale.
The survey in question has brought many responses, some favorable to Mr. Fletcher's position, and some
not so favorable of Dan Patrick for "secretly" commissioning this poll and then using his house organs to regurgitate the results.
Kuff provides a good primer on the poll:
This is a push poll. Not an egregious one, of the "Would your opinion of Senator Bedfellow change if you learned that he regularly kicks puppies?" variety, but a push poll nonetheless. There's nothing wrong with this, as the point is to demonstrate that voters can be swung by a particular candidate's message, but it does mean that message has to get out there - a lot - in order for those votes to swing. I'm guessing that Fletcher isn't having too much trouble raising money (we'll know for sure soon enough), which is the key factor here. Basically, expect there to be a lot of negative mail sent about Rep. Van Arsdale.
Last night, on KSEV radio, Dan Patrick was all but frothing over the fact that, supposedly, Van Arsdale is running his own "push poll" in the district to counterbalance Dan's poll. Mr. Patrick all but took off the glove and slapped Van Arsdale in the face for daring to question the integrity of Gospel Truth Dan. He then went on to denigrate Mr. Van Arsdales use of "dirty politics" while assuring listeners that he was above such things.
Except, the facts aren't baring that out.
To whit...
Here’s an example– many pollsters, if they wanted to keep certain questions confidential, would have re-written and re-numbered the survey questionnaire made available to the public.
In this survey, for instance, we redacted questions 18 and 19. These questions addressed unflattering (but entirely accurate) information about Van Arsdale. No doubt those questions impacted respondents willingness to say he “deserved reelection” on second ballot. Our client wished to keep those questions confidential, so as not to tip their strategic hand.
If we had simply re-numbered the survey no one would know that the questions had been asked. But this would have given the public a false impression, because you would then assume that the +22 point jump in “new person” (and -18 point drop in “deserves reelect”) was wholly the result of the tax & spending vote questions, which isn’t accurate. These other questions had an impact too.
It's important to understand that there were two questions on the survey that were redacted from public view. Benzion himself states that they were concerning 'unflattering' (although the claim is that they are accurate) information regarding Mr. Van Arsdale. These questions
were asked of the respondants however, right before the second attempt to quantify support.
In other words, would you still support Van Arsdale if you knew he did "X".
And then there's this question:
13._ Corbin Van Arsdale has represented House District 130 in the state legislature for the past six years. During that time, can you remember something specific that he has done for you personally, your family, neighbors, community or others?
[IF YES OR UNSURE, FOLLOW-UP, RECORD]
And in your own words, what did Corbin Van Arsdale do that you remember?
That question is so loaded it ought to come with a warning.
The final kicker is here:
change their minds based on new information, so I’m going to ask you again...
20._ Do you think that Corbin Van Arsdale has performed his job well enough to deserve reelection as your state representative, or do you think it’s time to give a new person the chance to do better?
ASK ONLY IF DESERVES RE-ELECTION IN Q 20
20.a. Would you say you will vote for Corbin Van Arsdale in the next election regardless of who runs against him, or would you not say that?
Say what you want, but that ain't right.
One last thing:
A seemingly credible caller to Edd & Pat Wednesday morning indicates that someone is in the field with their own, apparently “pro” Van Arsdale survey
I heard that call replayed on Dan's show while driving home last night. He didn't supply ANY of the questions that he was asked, wasn't asked to hold on for verification of who he was, etc. He just said that "Van Arsdale was running a "push poll" in the district" which he (and the morning hosts and Dan) assumed was "dirty politics" and claiming that Dan was lying. The charge the started the whole rant.
I have no vote in HD 130, therefore I don't really have much of a stake in who wins. I DO have a stake in Texas politics as a whole, as do you.
So, based on all of this, here's my "push poll" question:
Is this the type of leadership you expected when you voted these people into office?
Hold tight, its going to get muddier before all is said and done.
UPDATE: (and a mea culpa, correction, clarification whatever you want to term it)
First off, I'm not a pollster. I'm an oil and gas accountant for an oil company who fiddles with a blog to pass the downtime in the evenings/during early mornings and during the occasional work break or when things are running REALLY slow at work.
From time to time I will be wrong. I make every effort to publically, and prominently, correct those errors when they are made.
This is one of those times.
The "poll" in question is not a "push poll" as I agreed with Kuff (erroneously) that it should be characterized as. As a matter of fact (as I've admitted in the comments) as a tool to probe Van Arsdale's relative strength in the district it is a very legitimate tool.
What I take issue with, and what I originally intended to highlight in my post, was the manner in which the Fletcher campaign, Lone Star Times, and Dan Patrick are utilizing this poll to convey ideas that blurr the lines between black/white and gray areas.
I have posted quotes, recounted information to the best of my ability to demonstrate facts to prove my case. In the process of that the focus of the post was drawn closer toward the buglight of pollster technicalities than I have the expertise and/or desire to focus on. Therefore I will defer to the "pros" and remove my characterization of the poll as a "push poll". I will however leave all links and the original posting text unchanged, so that you may see the errors that I made.
I stand fully behind the other criticisms I made in the post however.
Thank you.