The eternal optimist in the news again.

Kevin over at BlogHouston spotted one I missed: It's a Keeling sighting!!!

The Chron's Nancy Sarnoff provided the prose...

Occupancy at area hotels is slipping, as the nation's economic troubles have resulted in weaker demand for business travel around the country and in Houston.

Areawide, occupancy is expected to dip about 1 percentage point by the year's end to 66.5 percent, hotel consultant John Keeling said at a meeting Thursday of the Hotel & Lodging Association of Greater Houston.

"It's reflective of what's going on in the rest of the country," said Keeling, senior vice president of PKF Consulting in Houston. "Because we're better diversified, we're affected by it."

So, occupancy rates are slipping, despite Keeling's predictions they would be increasing. At least Sarnoff acknowledges Keeling's error:

Last year, PKF predicted Houston-area hotel occupancy would reach 70 percent in 2008. But that was before the extent of the economic downturn was known.

Actually, from reports we're getting Houston has been less affected by the "effects of the economic downturn" than the rest of the Country, so that last bit of editorialzing by Sarnoff is incorrect. The fact is, Keeling has a consistent record of estimating on the high side mis-reading economic downturns or no. That's what should be reported by Sarnoff in these stories, yet she (and the Chron) continue to trot out Keeling everytime a hotel story hits the paper.

Here's the real funny bit:

Even though convention demand won't be as strong in 2009, Keeling said, business travel is expected to pick up, driven by energy, transportation and health care industries.

Houston's ability to compete for conventions would improve if downtown had more big hotels, industry experts say.

Of all the major downtowns in Texas, Houston's has the smallest inventory of rooms.

The Texas Medical Center, Keeling said, is also in need of more hotels. But with few developable sites, most of the construction is on the outskirts.

If you go read the rest of the article, the last few statements calling for more hotels in Houston is unbelievable. I don't know about you but economics 101 tells me that a time of high inflation and retraction in usage is NOT the time to expand ones portfolio. Add to that the tight construction credit market and building a second downtown hotel (which is what this was designed to be a dossier for) would border on negligent behavior, especially when you consider most of these hotels are funded in part by taxpayer money.

Also distinctively lacking from this story is any semblence of a contrarian view. All of the quoted "experts" are hotel industry insiders, or PKF associates.


You mean to tell me there's not one single solitary expert in Houston who thinks that building another downtown hotel at taxpayer expense is a bad idea in the current market?

Not ONE?

Or are they just not being asked the question?

That's the question news consumers have a right to ask of the Chron, are they asking the right questions of the right people in their reporting? Because these hotel articles sound more like boosterism than journalism. Anything with Keeling as the lead expert should be automatically suspect due to his track record of getting it wrong.