Houston Murders Slightly Down in '07

Back to 'normal' murder rates after Katrina?

Jennifer Leahy of the Chron gives us the down n' dirty:

After two consecutive years of increases, the number and rate of Houston homicides dropped in 2007.

The city had 351 homicides through Dec. 31 down from 376 in 2006, HPD spokesman John Cannon said.

That's 14.4 homicides per 100,000 residents in 2007, compared with 15.9 during 2006. In 2005, Houston recorded 336 homicides, a rate of 14.3 percent.

(snip)

Authorities warn that Houstonians shouldn't get too excited about the unofficial tally.

As cases are reviewed, the numbers will likely increase.

"There are delayed deaths and delays in rulings," Jett said. "In the case of an arson death, it may take six months for it to be ruled a homicide. Infant deaths are the same way."

(snip)

It's up to the Harris County Medical Examiner's Office to determine the cause of death, and official rulings can take months as investigators wait on toxicology and other test results, Jett said.

Additionally, not every homicide is counted in the figures, police said.

"Not all homicides are murders; justifiable homicide is not considered murder," Jett said. "Homicide may be an accidental death. If you have a person who is showing a family member how to use a gun and accidentally discharges the weapon and kills someone, that is a homicide but not a murder."

Even within HPD, there's some confusion over murder reporting and designation, Jett admitted, adding that newly implemented internal standards should lead to more efficient and accurate cause of death records.

Interesting to see that HPD is now making it a point to address the concerns raised in by KHOU reporter Mark Greenblatt regarding alleged 'undercounting' practices when it comes to classifying homicides as either, "murder" or "non-negligent homicide. This is a big turnaround from their first reactions to the story (think ostrich) and a departure from the previous tactic of responding to criticism by attempting to smear the journalist. That's good to see.

The most telling numbers however come when you take a look at the "trends" regarding murder rates as reported to the FBI:

Homicides per 100,000 Houston residents for the first 11 months of the years:
• 2007: 14.4

• 2006: 15.9

• 2005: 14.3

• 2004: 12.4

• 2003: 12.8

If you were to "draw a line" through 2006, writing off the large increase in murders during 2006 as a "one off" event sparked by the confusion surrounding the influx of a criminal element from New Orleans (Not to be confused with the 'normal folks' who were displaced by Katrina mind you) then you'd see that the "murder rate" in Houston is actually still on the uptick (albeit slight), and the only reason the numbers appear lower is due to the fact that 2006 was exceptionally high.

Just as it was not fair for some to blame the HPD for the increase in murders in 2006, its also not fair for HPD to take credit for reducing the murder count from that time. This had little to do with the overtime programs or anything other than the fact that most of the criminal element that came in has either left of their own accord, or were rounded up and imprisoned due to inter-agency task force efforts. Certainly HPD had a prominent role in working in these tasks forces, but to say that HPD programs helped lead to this reduction overstates the role of the Department in dealing with the problem.


Still, as with any news that crime is going down it should be welcomed with open arms, and our politicians and policy-makers should consider taking hard looks at the programs that made this happen, both HPD and non-HPD related.